The Dangers of Ruthless Extrapolation in Business

Recognizing patterns was helpful for our ancestors. They could make decisions based on seasonal cues or changes in food supply. But today, we often extrapolate too much. In his article “Ruthless Extrapolation,” professor of physics Tom Murphy demonstrates this with an extrapolation of transatlantic crossing times: Extrapolate the progress of the aeronautical age to 2012, …

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Addicted to Action-Taking

Hi, I’m Martin and I’m addicted to action-taking. At the beginning of October I made a hard decision to shut down a new business. I told myself that I would take it easy for the foreseeable future. I needed it for my mental health. I would focus on my road trip through Europe. Then I …

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Finding Peace in an Empty Calendar

I’ve never enjoyed having a busy calendar. With more than one urgent matter to attend to, I already get anxious. The idea of back-to-back tasks throughout the day gives me jitters. It sounds like a major character flaw. In our fast-paced world, we should be able to deal with many obligations, shouldn’t we? Or should …

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Are You Addicted to Your Inefficiencies?

We all have blind spots that make it difficult to practice 80/20 thinking. One source of these overlooked inefficiencies are emotional biases. For example, status quo bias makes us prefer the current state of affairs. We perceive any change, even if meant to improve the situation, as a potential loss. This makes us reluctant to …

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Is Your Environment Simple?

What if you could strengthen your 80/20 thinking muscle by de-cluttering your physical environment? In Pre-Suasion, Robert Cialdini shares a story of writing his first book, Influence. He worked in two different environments. The first one was his campus office with a view over academic institutes. In the second environment, his home office, he had …

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