The Dangers of Ruthless Extrapolation in Business
Recognizing patterns was helpful for our ancestors. They could make decisions based on seasonal cues or changes in food supply. But today, we often extrapolate too much. In his article “Ruthless Extrapolation,” professor of physics Tom Murphy demonstrates this with an extrapolation of transatlantic crossing times: Extrapolate the progress of the aeronautical age to 2012, …